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HIRI’s October 2026 economic update reports that rolling 12-month sales at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers reached $520.5 billion in August, the highest level in its 25-month tracking period. The update also records a 6.86% 30-year mortgage rate in September, weaker consumer confidence and ongoing contractor difficulties closing business and keeping scheduled jobs.
The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) released its October 2026 economic update, reporting that rolling 12-month sales at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers reached $520.5 billion in August, the highest level in the 25 months tracked. The report also points to pressure on the sector: 30-year mortgage rates rose for a seventh consecutive month, consumer confidence declined, and many contractors continued to postpone or cancel jobs.
The $520.5 billion sales figure covers the rolling 12 months through August 2026 at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers. HIRI described it as the highest level in the 25 months included in its tracking. The source report does not provide a year-over-year sales comparison or break down the total by product category.
Housing and consumer indicators moved in a less favorable direction. The 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.86% in September, marking its seventh consecutive monthly increase and its highest point since January 2025, according to the update. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.6% to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading in the same 25-month tracking period.
Contractors reported challenges both winning work and carrying out scheduled projects. Among contractors who said they were experiencing sales challenges, 45% cited closing new business, up from 23% in the second quarter of 2026. In the third quarter, 54% postponed or cancelled scheduled jobs. That share was lower than the 60% reported in the second quarter, but higher than the 30% recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
Sales Growth Meets Project Delays
The report presents a mixed picture for home improvement businesses. Strong dealer sales over the rolling year indicate substantial market activity, while rising mortgage rates and falling consumer confidence may weigh on households’ willingness or ability to take on some projects. The figures do not establish that either indicator caused changes in sales or contractor bookings; they show conditions occurring at the same time.
For contractors, the share reporting difficulty closing new business rose sharply between the second and third quarters. At the same time, postponed or cancelled jobs remained much more common than a year earlier, despite easing from the second-quarter level. This matters to businesses planning staffing, purchasing and schedules: a high sales total across dealers does not mean every contractor is seeing reliable project flow.
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What HIRI Tracked This Month
HIRI’s monthly Economic & Industry Update brings together general economic, housing-market and home-improvement-market data, along with evaluations of indicators affecting the sector. The October edition summarizes figures from different periods: dealer sales through August, mortgage rates and consumer confidence in September, and contractor responses for the second and third quarters.
The figures are therefore not a single, same-month snapshot. The sales measure is a rolling 12-month total, while the confidence reading and mortgage rate are September observations. Contractor percentages describe reported challenges and job changes over specific quarters. HIRI’s original report, published by Hardware Retailing on November 4, says access to the full update requires HIRI membership.
Limits of the Reported Figures
The source summary does not specify the survey sample size, how contractors were selected, or whether the same respondents answered in each quarter. It also does not provide detailed definitions for “sales challenges” or postponed and cancelled jobs. The 45% figure applies only to contractors who reported sales challenges, not to all contractors.
The update’s summary provides no forecast, cause-and-effect analysis or detailed sales comparisons by region or category. It is not clear from the published summary how mortgage rates or consumer confidence affected the reported dealer sales or contractor results. The available information supports a description of the indicators, not a conclusion that one caused another.
Further Data in HIRI’s Full Update
HIRI’s October update is the next source for readers seeking the underlying data and its fuller evaluation of economic and housing indicators. Hardware Retailing’s report says readers must sign up for HIRI membership to read the full update. The summary does not give a date for the next monthly report or identify additional releases.
For now, the reported figures establish the latest conditions covered: dealer sales reached a tracking-period high in August, borrowing costs and consumer confidence moved against households in September, and contractors still faced substantial project disruption in the third quarter. Whether those patterns continue will depend on subsequent data.
Key Questions
What sales figure did HIRI report?
HIRI reported $520.5 billion in rolling 12-month sales through August 2026 at building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers. It was the highest level in the 25 months tracked.
How high did the 30-year mortgage rate reach?
The rate reached 6.86% in September 2026, its seventh consecutive monthly increase and highest reading since January 2025, according to HIRI’s summary.
What contractor challenges did the update identify?
Among contractors reporting sales challenges, 45% said closing new business was a challenge, compared with 23% in the second quarter. In the third quarter, 54% postponed or cancelled scheduled jobs, down from 60% in the second quarter but above 30% in the third quarter of 2025.
Does the report explain why sales and contractor conditions differ?
No. The published summary lists the indicators but does not establish why dealer sales were high while contractors reported business and scheduling difficulties, or prove that mortgage rates or consumer confidence caused those conditions.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
